see update towards end of the post
After failing to eject the ruling party, ZANU PF, from power in the most recent national elections of 2008 and 2013, the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai is now faced with an increasingly complex issue ahead of 2018.
The 2018 election is highly anticipated to be a high stakes game considering the current social and economic heat facing the population. In the midst of this national morass is unfolding a potentially scales titling predicament.
An emerging issue that I think may reach an openly crisis level before or even at the eve of the 2018 election is the health and well-being of Mr Morgan Tsvangirai the most recognized and relentless brand in Zimbabwe’s opposition politics.
At 64, Morgan Tsvangirai is showing worrisome signs of a considerable slowdown in his health. This situation has not been made any simpler by the secretive route taken by his party in sharing information about his well-being.
Cause for concern
The most worrisome signs began to show when Tsvangirai appeared for the well attended march in central Harare on April 11. He led the march from the front walking a distance of no less than several kilometres. This was through winding streets from what MDC activists calls Freedom Square near Rainbow Towers Hotel to Harare’s Africa Unity Square next to the Parliament of Zimbabwe Building.
At the Africa Unity Square, where the march turned into a brief rally for Tsvangirai’s address, the opposition icon looked unusually exhausted and worn out for his age.
Even the opposition loathed Nathiniel Manheru who has a weekly column in the State owned newspaper, The Herald, and believed to be President Mugabe’s spokesman George Charamba(( Zimbabwe Situation – Herald’s Manheru finally discloses who he is)), wrote in his column that same week stating that at the rally “Tsvangirai looked shrunken, ashen and wistful”.((Nathaniel Manheru – The Other Side: Zimbabwean politics of the crowds))
Tsvangirai himself dismissed Manheru’s comments reportedly saying
I think that Charamba must realise that he cannot compare me with his boss. If Mugabe is frail, it doesn’t mean that Tsvangirai is frail as well. I am healthy and I don’t have any health problems. In fact, [during the march] it was my wife (Elizabeth Macheka), who was balancing on me because she was wearing shoes that made her require some balance from me. But the long and short of it is that I don’t have any health problems((NewsDay Zimbabwe – Sick Tsvangirai rushed to S Africa))
Despite this apparent downplay. it was noticeable that his address at the march was unusually brief. Some of his supporters left disappointed having seemingly expected something with a greater oomph to mark the end of the march after such an unexpectedly huge turnout.
The biggest news story concerning Morgan Tsvangirai’s health that followed after the 11th April march in Harare was what appeared to be an emergency evacuation to South Africa in late May a month after the march.((Newzimbabwe – Tsvangirai admitted at South African hospital – party confirms)) It is this same evacuation that brought him criticism among members of the public who felt he had failed to resist President Mugabe’s penchant for external medical care.
His party has remained tight-lipped concerning the opposition leader’s health and what exactly the problem is. This buttoned-up approach is in itself telling considering that the MDC over the years has been at the forefront of criticizing what they believe to be government and ZANU PF’s cover-up of President Mugabe’s real health status.
Weighty health issue
Mr Tsvangirai’s health situation is of a weighty nature even though for now it appears somewhat, PR wise, under control. This is further supported by the fact that it was on account of his health that he missed a similar street campaign in Bulawayo on May 26th which his Vice President Thokhozani Khupe stepped in to lead.((NewsDay Zimbabwe – MDC-T rallies Bulawayo for anti-Zanu PF demo)) He also missed a high turn-out Mutare march a few days ago on the 23rd of June.
The Mutare rally which again was led by the party’s Vice President Khupe had had its dates shifted in an attempt to accommodate Mr Tsvangirai who was still recovering in South Africa.
Even after his return, he failed to attend the march citing continued recuperation at home since his discharge from a South African hospital. He improvised by addressing the expectant crowds via a live telephone connection fed into the public address system.
These latest events concerning Morgan Tsvangirai’s health are a culmination of past sporadic events going back to a few years ago((Daily Nation – Tsvangirai in hospital with nervous breakdown, claim Zimbabwe media)).
It is clear that in Zimbabwe’s intimate political circles unlike the outside on the streets what is afflicting the opposition leader is not a game of speculation nor a secret. This is the kind of information that is hardly possible to keep away from those who are trained to find it.
Though masked in lines of rhetoric and allegories there is a sense that some, particularly in the State controlled media, appear to have a definitive illation of Mr Tsvangirai’s health situation if titles in column pieces are anything to go by((Tichaona Zindoga – My Turn: A dead horse called Morgan Tsvangirai)).
Finding a viable 2018 strategy – Joice Mujuru deliverance
Internally the MDC must be faced with the reality that come 2018 Mr Tsvangirai may not be their best horse due to ill-health. This must also be creating certain internal dynamics of its own.
For many years, those who are still in the party and those who have left through the repeated fall-outs played their part in contributing to the brand Tsvangirai that now appears not only to be threatened but also threatens to tear the party to rags if these developments are not managed well.
It’s a sail into the unknown not only for the MDC but also for the citizens themselves going into a crucial election with a main contender other than Morgan Tsvangirai.
For the last nearly 20 years, Robert Mugabe and Tsvangirai have marked the political contours within the Republic. The biggest headache of all for the MDC at the moment may not be a missing Tsvangirai but a missing replacement.
As it is, even though Madam Khupe has been attempting to fill Tsvangirai’s big shoes at the marches, its hardly the same thing for an election. The MDC obviously needs a well recognized face country wide and what is lost to them between now and 2018 is how to successfully find that replacement.
In my analysis of the situation, a viable strategy for the MDC is to seriously think about closing ranks with the newly formed Zimbabwe People First (ZimPF) for coalition purposes especially at presidential level.
This will buy the MDC necessary time which they badly lack at the moment to find that replacement of Tsvangirai for the long-term survival of the party.
This of course assumes that a coalition remains the most viable game plan for the opposition to finally succeed in discharging Zanu PF from power.
Joyce Mujuru the former State Vice President and senior member of Zanu PF now leader of ZimPF is likely to have a better national appeal than any candidate the MDC can produce in this short period. Whoever that candidate might be, is likely to be eclipsed by Mujuru anyway only weakening the opposition standing and therefore chances in the election.
The coming on-board of the MDC on Mujuru’s boat could also help her cleanse a nagging question that has implications among the pro-opposition public. ZimPF is currently battling trust issues in attempts to reach-out to citizens who have been neutral or those long disillusioned by the MDC.
Regardless of what the MDC may think about this option, their problem is they have very few other options anyway if any. Finding a new candidate to replace Morgan Tsvangirai within the party is likely to badly rock the boat and weaken the party on the eve of a serious election. They are to be alive to their weaknesses and avoid responses that deepen the wedge among them.
Update
Within less than 24 hours of the publication of this post, news started filtering in that Morgan Tsvangirai had released a public statement confirming he has colon cancer.
Part of the statement read
On the 8th of May 2016, my Zimbabwean doctors referred me to South Africa where a further diagnosis revealed that I am suffering from cancer of the colon. Following the diagnosis last month, I underwent an operation last month that was very successful
Adding that
As a leader and public figure, I have taken a decision to make public my condition. It is my firm belief that the health of national leaders, including politicians, should not be a subject of national speculation and uncertainty((New Zimbabwe – Tsvangirai says has got colon cancer, urges Zimbabweans to fight against national problems))
Few politicians and those who hold visible public office in Zimbabwe have been able to take this bold move. Tsvangirai should be commended for this.
This development significantly alters my earlier analysis in two main ways. It creates further problems and it also creates an opportunity
Number 1- the difficulty
Going public with a health update of this nature while initially welcome begins to openly raise important questions about the current president’s viability as the party’s candidate for the 2018 election. Already, as noted in my original analysis the MDC-T president appears worn out and ongoing treatment is likely to add to this. The 2018 election does not promise to be a walk-in the park election.
The same day the statement came out, it was reported Tsvangirai was leaving for South Africa for follow-up treatment.
This is a reminder that this personal fight is likely to occupy a lot of his time and of itself taxing. Whereas previously and for many years he gave 100% to the political fight, since the 8th of May that effort can be said to have been highly degraded by the personal fight.
Internally within the party, it’s likely that calls if not already the case, will start growing louder to groom a replacement.
Since the MDC-T is really a personality brand, it will also take Tsvangirai’s committed involvement, assuming he agrees with the replacement strategy, to sell that “new” individual to the legion of MDC-T followers across all the provinces. This means he will need to be physically involved in this exercise.
The response of MDC-T ordinary card carrying members and silent supporters is hard to predict. What is certain is that an MDC-T without Tsvangirai is difficult to imagine for the rank and file, many in its top leadership and just the generality of Zimbabweans.
Number 2 – the opportunity
Going public is also an opportunity for the party to reflect and openly confront this latest challenge manifesting itself in unfamiliar territory. Assuming its accepted by himself and top leadership that his standing in 2018 may not be in the best interest of the party and must be allowed to rest, then the party could move forward to identify a suitable new leader.
Barring internal squabbles the MDC-T could settle for a unifying individual which some have suggested to be the young Nelson Chamisa who shall be turning 40 just about the time of the general election therefore qualifying to stand according to the Constitution.
However, Nelson Chamisa is unlikely to have the necessary clout needed to eclipse Joice Mujuru in both cases – running against her and Robert Mugabe and also in the envisaged coalition so as to be the leader of the coalition.
Either way, following this logic, the MDC-T will have to fall back on my original analysis that they actually need Joice Mujuru to lead the coalition as president. I think Joice Mujuru appeared at the right time as the opposition would have been in a greater quandary than currently unfolding.
The MDC-T’s own individual Chamisa or not could then settle for the VP position in the coalition which is good enough to keep the party alive, focused and regrouping for the next general election which hopefully will have a better playing field to go it alone.
If they do not do it this way, voters voting for the opposition are likely to vote a better known Mujuru for president and MDC-T candidates for MPs in a similar fashion as happened in Zanu PF when president Mugabe lost to Moragn Tsvangirai in the first round of the 2008 election.
If this happens the MDC-T will loose, with consequences, the opportunity to be in the presidency at national level should Mujuru win the presidency against Zanu PF’s candidate.
Morgan Tsvangirai Image Credit: Redpepper