Yesterday Donald Trump was in Monessen, Pennsylvania in the United States where he delivered a 40 minute “How to make America great again” speech.((HIT Breaking News – FULL: Donald Trump Delivers Policy Speech On Trade, Pennsylvania: Criticizes Hillary Clinton 6/28/16 VID)) His speech blamed America’s employment woes particularly in small town America on bad international trade positioning.
He singled out China as the main cause of America’s losses claiming that since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), a staggering 50 000 American companies have closed down. Donald Trump is right that America is currently, and has been so for many years, a net importer. Evidence abounds.((OEC – United States))
What caught my attention and what I think our policy makers should be wary of is his exposition that if he became President he would
…direct Secretary of Commerce to identify every violation of trade agreements, a foreign country is currently using to harm you the American worker. I will then direct all appropriate agencies to use every tool under American and international law to end these abuses
What should we make of this statement? Is it a cause for concern or not for our current trade mess?
I think what we have been doing on the trade front with measures such as SI 64/2016, will get the better of us should Mr Trump live up to his promise as President. You can read my opinion on SI 64/2016 to see how it’s bad for us.
Donald Trump is still someways from clinching the American Presidency. We sure have the option to ignore him and convince ourselves he won’t beat Hilary Clinton. Coming out of Brexit, the world has kind of learned to expect the unexpected.
Many are now officially worried including China itself ((Foreign Policy – China Asks U.S. Voters To Be ‘Reasonable and Objective’ as Trump Ascends)) that there is a possibility of the world dealing with an anti-globalization American president who is disengaged from global issues but more inward looking to protect what he perceives to be American interests.
This of course maybe election season rhetoric as it often is, but Donald Trump is making high stakes promises the load of which he will be forced to carry to the White House should he be elected president.
Added to this is that from the start he marketed himself as an outsider, a successful business man, coming in to undo the mess politicians in Washington have brought on America. It shouldn’t be surprising that he hasn’t really revised his tone as hoped for by many since his presumptive nomination in May.
If given a chance to get into office he will come in with that burden to distinguish himself from “politicians”. I think this is what is worrying many from Europe to China.
The riots and physical opposition at his rallies is evidence enough many are really terrified at his presidency.
I think there is cause to anticipate some real shake-up in global trade.
Trump has unequivocally linked America’s economic decline, in his eyes, to unfavorable trade. If America enforces trade rules as Donald Trump has promised, then we can expected everyone else will also take a cue from the United States for their own survival.
If Donald Trump succeeds in igniting some sort of global trade war, small countries like Zimbabwe which have been goading others through actions such as SI 64/2016 and other things before that, will be exposed.
Further, if Zimbabwe succeeds in plugging back into the global economy as Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa is encouraging and himself working hard to achieve, our trade Minister can expect to meet with Donald Trump’s promised “toughest and smartest trade negotiators”.
This also applies to AGOA which Zimbabwe is currently not, but may want to become a part of in the next four to eight years of a possible Donald Trump presidency assuming our own politics come around to “pleasing” the United States during that period.
AGOA beneficiary countries on the continent can expect a greater push by America under Donald Trump for more pronounced reciprocal trade within AGOA.
In the same speech he said “we allow foreign countries that cheat to export their goods to our country tax free” what he really meant was tariff free which speaks of AGOA.
If America insists on more pronounced reciprocal trade under AGOA, that will undoubtedly deepen current trade deficits experienced across Africa by AGOA beneficiary countries.
Donald Trump Image Credit: Foreign Policy.com